Credit: Icon SMI
I brought donuts (Fantasy Football insight)! And I don’t want to brag…but they’re filled with jelly.
1) In 2010 Player #1 had 182 carries for 735 yards & 25 catches for 216 yards plus 11 total TDs for 188 FP (Site Scoring). Player #2 had 157 for 675 & 22 for 145 with 7 TDs. Both played for the same team and at the same position. Player #1 is currently available about 50 spots later than Player #2 in Fantasy Football Drafts. Player #1 is Mike Tolbert and #2 is Ryan Mathews. Mike Tolbert = Bargain.
2) Let’s play again! In 2010 Player #1 had 86 catches for 1,014 yards, 3TDs and 206 FP. Player #2 had 79 for 820, 5 TDs and 191 FP. Again both played for the same team and at the same position. This time it is Player #2 being drafted about 80 spots later than Player #1. Player #2 is Davone Bess and Player #1 is Brandon Marshall. Davone Bess = Bargain.
3) Despite his antics, I am feeling some love for Chad Ochocinco this year. As mentioned previously (GregsNotes), there is a ton of upside. Chad might not be the fastest receiver, but he knows how to get open. And open WRs in N.E. get the ball. Currently being drafted about 25 spots lower than I have him ranked. Sleeper.
4) If Austin Collie can ever stay healthy, he could be a monster. Over his last dozen games played, he averages 18.5 FP and has scored 12 or more Fantasy Points in 10 out of those 12 games for an amazing 83% Consistency Rate. Compare those numbers to Reggie Wayne’s 17.06 FP and 8 out of 12 for 67%. Both impressive, but with Austin being drafted about 40 spots later than Reggie, I think the value is with Mr. Collie.
5) Sticking with WRs, another guy on my radar is Mario Manningham. Hakeem Nicks gets all the attention with 18.39 FP and 92% Consistency in his last 12 games, and rightfully so. But Mario has been impressive in his own right with 14.67 FP and 67% Consistency. And being available about 60 spots later makes Mr. Manningham a Bargain.
Credit : Icon SMI
6) I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. I love Kevin Kolb in Arizona! I would be quite comfortable with him as my starter, and he is currently being drafted as the 18th QB at #130. Bargain.
7) I’m a little less excited about Matthew Stafford, and a little more concerned about injury, but it’s a similar situation. Both have stud WRs to work with. Stafford isn’t near the bargain, but is going at #94 as the 13th QB.
8) From 2008-2010, the highest scoring Running Back in New Orleans has averaged 165 FP, with #2 getting 143 FP, and #3 getting 95 FP. Take out the injury plagued 2010 season, and from 2008-2009 you get: #1-195 FP, #2-170 FP, and #3-105 FP. So not a lot of difference between #1 and #2, and #3 will score more points than half of the #2 RBs in the league. So where is the value in this situation? Mark Ingram is currently being drafted as the 22nd RB, which I think is about right where he should be; solid pick, but not great value. Pierre Thomas is going as the 36th RB off the board. If you believe he will be the #2 in N.O. then there is some slight value in the pick. If not, then it’s a slight reach. Personally, I like Darren Sproles as the #2 RB for the Saints. It seems like they are constantly bringing new backs into N.O. which indicates to me that there is no faith in Pierre. I think Darren’s main value will come in the passing game with 65-75 catches. And with Mr. Sproles currently being drafted in the #132 spot, he is a huge Bargain.
9) Another Running Back situation which represents great value is the #2 in Atlanta. Prior to Jason Snelling resigning, I was high on Jacquizz Rodgers. Now we will have to monitor the preseason. The #2 for the Falcons averages 146 FP from 2008-2010, which is more than all but three (NYG, SD, and CAR) of the #2s in the NFL. With Snelling being drafted at #142 and Rodgers at #169, the winner of this battle will be a tremendous Bargain.
10) DO NOT waste your time even thinking about drafting a Cleveland Browns receiver. In the last 3 years, the top scoring WR for the Browns has averaged a mere 127 Fantasy Points. Over the last 2, that number drops to 108 FP. Stay Away!
11) There are six #2 Running Backs from 2008-2010 who have averaged more points than the #1 RB in Seattle. Stay Away from Seahawks RBs! See Back to the Future Running Back Analysis.
12) There are TWENTY-EIGHT #2 Wide Receivers from 2008-2010 who have averaged more points than the #1 WR in Oakland. Please Stay Away from Raiders WRs! See Back to the Future Wide Receiver Analysis.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Great article. I’ve always found it difficult to relate articles speaking in terms of ADP and correlating to value in terms of Auction Dollars. Where’s that “strike” point and where’s the “let it go” price.
Our format is a 10 team league and 22 man roster. We have $100/team to auction for the first 11 players. The remaining 11 players are drafted and rookies are only available in the draft portion (not auction).
To complicate matters we have up to 3 keepers and we have to paid a “fixed” amount on top of his previous years salary in order to keep that player. That “fixed” dollar amount increments by $3 for each year you’ve kept him. In other words, if you paid $10 for player A last year and that was his first year he played on your team, you could keep him for $13 in 2011. If he worked out well enough in 2011 and you chose to keep player A again in 2012, you would have to pay $6 on top of the $13 you paid in 2011 bringing his KV to $19.
I got off topic a bit, but would love to see how I could apply your thoughts on these players to value in an auction. As an example, you brought up Tolbert as a fantastic bargain. In our league Tolbert was picked up in a blind bid auction in the middle of the 2010 season for $9.50. So in order to keep him, his cost this year would be $12.50 (3 + 9.50). He’s currently on another owners team. I’m wondering if I should trade for him (which could cost me auction money, draft picks or players or some combo to make that happen) and pay the $12.50 to keep him to boot. However, part of me thinks that $12.50 is not quite “value” for him in our league and I might have a good chance in getting him in the auction for less than that and keep my auction dollars and draft picks in my pocket.
Thoughts on how to approach thinking about this and assessing value as you did above in an auction?
Nelson – Thanks for the compliment. The purpose of this article is, as you indicated, to discuss players of “value.” When one starts to reach for such players, such as in your example of trading for Tolbert, then that “value” is gone. I would target Tolbert, or any of the players discussed, in your auction after the “big name” players are gone.
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